2009 Opponent Preview - Michigan Wolverines

The debut of the Rich Rodriguez era had Lloyd Carr rolling over in his grave last year when the Michigan Wolverines went 3-9, seeing their first losing season in 40 years and their first season without postseason play in 33 years (both were the longest streak in the NCAA). Rodriguez is already feeling some heat from UM boosters and alumni, and this year's matchup against the Irish will be a litmus test for both teams. The Irish will need a win to prove that they are the real deal (ND should be favored heading into the matchup). Michigan will need a win to gain confidence heading into the year, and a victory would hush some of the critics early in the season.

The Irish have played the Wolverines 36 times. Michigan has won 20 of those games, the Irish have won 15, and one game was tied(However, this is counting the first 8 matchups, when the Irish had just started a team). Last year the Irish beat Michigan by a score of 35-17, thanks in part to six Wolverine turnovers. The Irish held a 21-0 lead just 10 minutes into the first quarter and never looked back.

This year's Michigan team will look similar in strategy and structure. The Wolverines return 10 starters on offense, but just 5 on defense. Here's a breakdown of the talent Michigan will put on the field:

Offense-Michigan runs the patented Rich Rodriguez spread on offense. Lots of shotgun, lots of QB reads. This proved to be a problem last year, when the Wolverines didn't have a quarterback that fit the system. This year they seam to have the right type of quarterback in place, though he is inexperienced and will have to pick up the offense in a hurry for second-week matchup against the Irish.
Backfield: Michigan will be breaking in a new quarterback in freshman Tate Forcier. This could be a real problem for the Maize and Blue. We all know how hard it is for a freshman QB to adjust to the college game (see Clausen, Jimmy), and the Forcier family doesn't have the best track record at the college level (then again, neither did the Clausen family). Tate needs to do better than the Michigan quarterbacks of 2008, who were only able to complete 48% of their passes for 1,718 yards. Leading rusher Brandon Minor returns, though he only ran for 563 yards last season while sharing carries with transfer Sam McGuffie (aka The Great White Hype).
Receivers: Michigan returns its top three receivers from last season in senior Greg Mathews and sophomores Darryl Stonum and Martavious Odoms. Odoms was the number one option, with team highs in catches (49) and yards (443). However, Odoms didn't have a single touchdown reception. Mathews and runningback Minor tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions with just two a piece. Tightend Kevein Koger, also a sophomore, returns, though he plays a minor role in the spread offense passing game. Koger had just 6 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown in 2008.
Offensive Line: Michigan returns its entire offensive line from last year. Perry Dorrestein and Mark Ortmann are the tackles, Stephen Schilling and David Moosman are the guards, and David Molk is the center. There's actually quite a bit of experience on the line, with two seniors, two juniors, and a sophomore. Molk took every snap as a true freshman last year. Schilling has started 23 games in his two seasons as a Wolverine. Phil Steele sees this as being the most improved offensive line in the country this year, even more improved than ours.

Defense- Michigan employs the 3-4 style that the Irish once held (for a matter of one-to-two seasons), which is a new installment thanks to Defensive Coordinator Greg Robinson (fresh from Syracuse). They are young up front and in the secondary, though their linebackers are a very good group. The defense actually did a very decent job against the Irish last year, though the turnovers were too much to overcome.
Defensive Line: Brandon Graham is back for his senior year after being named a second-team All Big-10 players. He had 20 tackles-for-loss last year, second in the NCAA. The other two lineman, DT Mike Martin and DE Ryan Van Bergen, are both sophomores getting their first regular starting experience this year. Martin made the freshman All-American team despite not starting a single game. He did, however, total 20 tackles from the NT position. Van Bergen had 13 tackles and made one start. The ends, Graham and Van Bergen, are very small for a 3-4 scheme, weighing in at 268 pounds and 261 pounds respectively.
Linebackers: ILBs Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are returning starters, as is hybrid LB/S Steve Brown. OLB JB Fitzgerald, a sophomore, is the only new starter in this group, though he played in 12 games as a true freshman. Ezeh lead the team with 98 tackles last year, and Mouton came in second with 76. Both players had one sack each. Brown is one of two seniors on the defense (Graham is the other). There's a lot of talent in this group, and they should prove to be the leaders of the defense.
Secondary: Donovan Warren is the only returning starter in the secondary, while Boubacar Cissoko, Michael WIlliams, and Troy Woolforlk are are new blood. Michigian let opposing quarterbacks complete 57.8% of their passes last year, a number which can either be attributed to poor players from last year's group or a number to shoot for for this young set of players. Warren is the only player in the secondary to have an interception last year, and he had only one. This group could be a real weakness for the Michigan defense, especially against teams that like to throw the ball a lot (and we know all about Charlie Weis' love affair with the air game).

Special Teams: True freshman Brendan Gibbons will be the kicker for the Maize and Blue this year. He was rated in the top ten out of high school last year, but you never know what you're going to get from a freshman kicker... and usually it's just varying degrees of bad to semi-decent. Zoltan Mesko returns as the punter after averaging 41.6 yards on 50 punts last season. He was a 1st team Big-10 selection, and he had a lot of practice throughout the year. Martavious Odoms and Boubacar Cissoko share the returning duties, with Odoms getting most of the looks on the punt return team.

Final Thoughts: Last year's Michigan team reminded me a lot of the 2007 Fighting Irish team; loads of freshman and sophomores getting playing time before they were ready, and lots of frustration (well, for the Michigan fans last year). This year's team reminds me a lot of last year's Irish team; I expect them to be inconsistent throughout the year, improving on the 2008 season but not being able to put together a consistent performance from week to week.

Michigan will really have its work cut out for them in breaking in freshman QB Tate Forcier by the second game of the year, especially against a Jon Tenuta defense. If I was a Michigan fan (and thank God I am not), I would be really worried about the secondaries inexperience against Jimmy Clausen and the ND receivers. Weis has had no problem relying on the pass in the past, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to the well time and time again against Michigan.

The Wolverines have the advantage of playing at home, where the Irish have only won once in their last five games against Michigan. Still, I would give the Irish a 65%-35% chance of winning this game. The Irish appear to be hitting year three of the rebuilding process, and things should start to click now. Michigan is still a year away, especially with a true freshman at quarterback.

Rivalry Notes:
- The series has seen two hiatuses (hiati?) in its history. The first came after Notre Dame beat the Wolverines for the first time in 1909. The rivalry resumed in 1942, when Elmer Layden worked out a home-and-home series with Wolverines coach Fielding Yost. Frank Leahy was the coach for the Irish when the two teams actually played in 1942, a game that featured a 23 minute 3rd quarter, a 7 minute 4th quarter, and a 20-13 Michigan victory. The Irish won the following year, and Leahy managed to anger Yost to the point that the Michigan coach would not schedule the Irish again in the future. The series continued in 1978, and has been a fairly regular matchup ever since.
- Both teams went undefeated in 1947 (during the second hiatus), winning 9 games a piece. Notre Dame was awarded the AP national championship after the regular season, but Michigan thumped USC in the Rose Bowl and Detroit Free Press editor Lyall Smith held another AP poll, with the only two teams available being the Irish and the Wolverines. The writers went with Michigan as the #1 team in the second poll by a margin of 226-119, but the AP continued to recognize the Irish as the 1947 National Champions. Michigan still hasn't gotten over it some 60+ years later.
- The home team is 8-2 in the last ten matchups, and the last three games have been decided by an average of 27 points.
- The series has been extended through the 2031 season.